Masterclass Program

ELECTRICITY MARKET OUTLOOK
Sustainable Prices for New Investment
Led by:
Ross Gawler, Director, McLennan Magasanik Associates
Antoine Nsair, Director, McLennan Magasanik Associates

The critical issues facing participants in the National Electricity Market (NEM), whether they are investors in the generation sector or retailers exposed to the wholesale market, relate to the prospects for sustainable electricity prices that will underpin new investment.

Identify the issues!

• Is the Statement Of Opportunities (SOO) a sufficient predictor of when new generating capacity will be required? 
•  Will prices sustain new investment at that time?
• What are the lead times and how can an investment strategy minimize risks?
•  What is the role of supply and demand side resources in providing reliable supply?
• How do new investments affect future prices?

With the development of Basslink and the subsequent entry of the state of Tasmania into the NEM, the changed dynamics of peak/off-peak pricing will create a new dimension to the NEM.

You will participate in the Masterclass by working through the issues investors face and explore strategies on how to be better prepared for an uncertain future with insufficient lead time, commercial and environmental constraints.

In this Masterclass you will determine:

• The supply and demand influences on pool and contract prices in the NEM
• What are the other key price drivers to watch in the NEM?
•  Understand what impact low cost resources will have on market prices
• What are the NEM participants’ apparent strategies?
• How is the NEM model supposed to provide price signals for new investment?
• Determine the risks for new investors
•  Identify warning signs investors previously overlooked when they last invested
• Pinpoint why investors lost money in the Victorian privatization process and in response to the 2001 price spikes
• What is the outlook for prices in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania post Basslink?
• How else will Basslink affect the mainland and market?
• Realise how Tasmanians will benefit from Basslink

The session will include presentations and group discussions in the morning and a participatory, hands on, masterclass in the afternoon. Participants are invited to discuss beforehand with the Masterclass leaders their objectives and how they might contribute.

Who will benefit from this Masterclass?
This Masterclass is aimed at key contributors to:

• Strategy Development
• Energy Trading
• Business Development
• Policy Development
• Risk Management
• Energy Marketing
•  Financial Planning
• Portfolio Management

About your Masterclass leaders:
Ross Gawler is a Director of McLennan Magasanik Associates, a leading Australian energy sector consulting firm. He specialises in electricity planning and market  modelling. He has over 25 years experience in planning and management of the Australian electricity system and has consulted extensively on its future development.
Antoine Nsair is a Director of McLennan Magasanik Associates and specialises in energy trading and retail market strategies and demand forecasting. Antoine has over 20 years experience in the energy industry and has provided advice to government owned and private corporations on market development and analysis.

Course documentation:
Participants will receive comprehensive documentation including all presentation material accompanied by background papers, plus a guide to internet sites to allow participants to remain up to date with future developments.